Know who hits tonight.
And what it's actually worth.
Seven calibrated models turn official MLB data into probabilities and fair prices — hits, total bases, home runs, strikeouts, and full-game moneylines — with every pick graded in public. Research, not hype.
Seven markets. One honest engine.
Every number is a probability or a fair price — never a mystery score.
🎯 P(Hit)
Chance of a hit tonight: regressed skill vs the exact starter and bullpen, platoon splits, park factors, and expected at-bats from the confirmed lineup slot.
🚀 xTB & 🧢 xHRR
Expected total bases and hits+runs+RBIs — opponent-adjusted expectations for the 2+ props, with each game's live result tracked beside the prediction.
💣 HR Score
True home-run probability: power per contact, the pitcher's HR habits by batter side, and the ballpark — with Statcast quality-of-contact context.
⚡ Expected K's
Strikeouts for every starter from his whiff rate, the opposing lineup's strikeout appetite, and platoon share — mapped to the 6+ K line.
🏆 Fair moneylines
Both lineups simulated pitch-for-pitch context: win probability, run-line cover rates, fair prices — and live book prices with the edge computed for you.
🎲 Simulation engines
Every market re-played 10,000 times per player with real game-to-game variance. When the sim and the formula disagree, that gap is the insight.
✨ Consensus picks
Five independent preset lenses — form, streaks, matchups, platoons, simulation — and a daily list of only the players they agree on.
🧾 Bet log & CLV
Log every wager against our fair price, track edge, closing-line value, and ROI — the professional habit, built in.
Radically transparent
Most pick services show you their wins. We show you everything.
Frozen mornings
Each day's inputs freeze after the previous night's games are final. The board you research at breakfast is the board that gets graded at night — no quiet rewrites, ever.
Calibrated probabilities
When the model says 75%, about 75% should hit — and the built-in calibration report shows whether it does. Brier-scored like a real forecasting shop.
Public grading
Every preset's season accuracy lives on the board — wins, losses, and sample sizes. The record is append-only and survives bad weeks in full view.
The community is free
You don't need a membership to hang out with us.
💬 The Informed Wagering Discord
Daily slate talk, model questions answered, results posted every night — wins and losses alike. Free for everyone, member or not. Come see how the community uses the boards before you spend a dollar.
Simple pricing
Cancel anytime from your own billing portal. No tiers, no upsells.
Free
- Top 3 daily picks (teaser board)
- Live grading on the teaser
- The public season record
- The community Discord
Member
- All seven market boards, every player
- Simulations, consensus picks & presets
- Live book prices with computed edges
- Player pages, news & injury feeds
- Bet log with edge & CLV tracking
- Saved filters synced to your account
Fair questions
Is this a picks service?
No. It's a research tool. We publish probabilities and fair prices with a public graded record; what you do with them — including nothing — is your call. Nothing here is betting or financial advice.
Where does the data come from?
The official MLB Stats API (stats, lineups, results), Baseball Savant (quality of contact), and a live odds feed across US sportsbooks. Models run on frozen morning snapshots so results are honestly graded.
Will this make me money?
Nobody can promise that, and anyone who does is selling something worse. Sports markets are hard; our job is honest probabilities, transparent grading, and the price discipline tools serious bettors actually use.
How do I cancel?
Dashboard → Manage billing → cancel. It's Stripe's own portal; access runs to the end of the paid period. No emails, no retention scripts.